Heilongjiang Journal of Animal Reproduction

试验旨在科学评估青海高原型藏羊的生长性能并构建其生长曲线模型，为高原地区藏羊的育种与饲养管理提供理论依据。试验于青海省海北州刚察县种羊繁育场进行，随机选取40只初生羔羊（公母各半），分别于1,3,4,5,6月龄测定体重、体高、体长和胸围等指标，采用Python软件进行相关性分析和多项式回归建模，并通过K折交叉验证评估模型性能。结果表明：青海高原型藏羊各项生长性能指标随月龄增长均呈上升趋势，且体重（Y）与体高（H）、体长（L）、胸围（C）之间均呈显著正相关（相关系数分别为0.84,0.84,0.78）。多项式回归模型：Y=7.59+0.35A+0.19H+0.05L+0.002C(A为月龄)。该模型拟合优度（R2）为0.656 7，表现出良好的预测能力与泛化性能。综上所述，本研究建立的生长曲线模型可用于青海高原型藏羊体重的预测，为其科学养殖与选育提供数据支持。

The experiment aims to scientifically assess the growth performance of Tibetan sheep and construct a growth curve model for Tibetan sheep on the Qinghai Plateau, providing a theoretical basis for the breeding and management of Tibetan sheep in plateau regions. In a breeding farm in Gangcha county, Haibei prefecture, Qinghai province, 40 randomly selected newborn lambs(20 ♂ and 20 ♀) were used to determine the measurements of body weight, body height, body length and chest circumference at 1 st, 3 rd, 4 th, 5 th and 6 th month of age. Correlation analysis and polynomial regression modeling were conducted using Python, and the model performance was evaluated through 5-fold cross-validation. The results suggested that the growth performance measurements of Plateau-type Tibetan sheep in Qinghai increased with aging by months, and that body weight was significantly positively correlated with body height, body length, and chest circumstances(correlation coefficients are 0. 84, 0. 84 and 0. 78, respectively). The polynomial regression model was constructed as: Y = 7. 59 + 0. 35A + 0. 19H + 0. 05L + 0. 002C, where y is for body weight, A is for month age, H is for body height, L is for length, and C is for chest circumference. The goodness of fit(R2) of this model is 0. 656 7, demonstrating good predictive capability and generalization performance. In summary, the growth curve model established in this study can be used to predict the growth performance of plateau-type Tibetan sheep in Qinghai.